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Economist: 'Bradley Effect' Could Doom Obama.(Barack Obama)(Brief article)

Article from: U.S. News & World Report Article date: November 03, 2008 Author: Pethokoukis, James

Byline: James Pethokoukis

This, from the VoxEU site: "Should Barack Obama worry about the Bradley effect? The much-discussed effect refers to observed discrepancies between voter opinion polls and election outcomes, in which African-American candidates receive a smaller vote share than would be predicted using opinion polls. In this column, I study US congressional and gubernatorial contests from 1998 to 2006 -- black candidates on average receive a 2-3% lower share of the two-party vote than non-black candidates with similar numbers in the polls. If an effect of a similar ...

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Hillary's on Her Heels

Posted Dec 12, 07 9:25 PM CST in Politics 

Hillary's on Her Heels
Source: Archive Photos

(Newser) – Addressing the moment's question for all Democrat-watchers, the New York Times’ Matt Bai says Hillary Clinton is “still in command of the race” but “seriously in danger of coming undone.” He reminds readers that Al Gore—the last Democratic candidate whose nomination seemed inevitable—lost control in 1999, and almost fell to Bill Bradley. Dems have similar “profound underlying doubts” about Hillary.

Clinton has “effectively run as an incumbent,” Bai writes, a great strategy … except that voters have long postponed pausing to think on whether she’s really electable and how progressive she’d be as president. She’s still on top, but she’ll have to weather some real reservations to survive. Could Barack Obama overtake her? Writes Bai, “absolutely.”

Source: New York Times

More about:  Barack Obama • Hillary Clinton • Al Gore • Bill Bradley

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