After a several straight losing weeks, the Democrats gained ground in the battle for the Senate this week, according to New York Times polling guru Nate Silver. Based on 100,000 simulations, Silver’s FiveThirtyEight prediction model now gives the GOP just an 18% chance to take the Senate, down from 24% last week. Democrats are projected to emerge with 52 Senators.
Among the recent swings: Nevada now looks like a toss-up, after leaning Sharron Angle’s way last week, while West Virginia and Washington have both shifted in favor of Democrats—the latter dramatically so. Christine O’Donnell’s already slim Delaware odds “are now close to nil.” That said, “it would be dubious to assert that Democrats have some ‘momentum’ at the national level,” Silver warns. In House races, polls still predict “large (potentially very large) Democratic losses.”