Fed's Employment Forecast Should Scare Obama

The Federal Reserve issued a dour new economic outlook yesterday, predicting that the unemployment rate, currently at 9.6%, will fall to only 9% by 2011 and 8% by late 2012. That's bad news for everyone, but especially for President Obama; Daily Intel notes that incumbents lost in four of the past five presidential elections in which unemployment was at more than 6%.

The sour outlook comes, it should be noted, amidst a number of positive economic signs, the Washington Post observes. The GDP rose at a 2.5% annual rate this summer, the Commerce Department said yesterday, instead of the 2% previously reported. The number of people applying for unemployment benefits, meanwhile, fell to a two-year low, while incomes and consumer spending rose, according to a Labor Department report issued today. (More unemployment stories.)