Pawlenty Forms Presidential Committee

It's Romney, Pawlenty, Perry, and Bachmann (in that order): Nate Silver

(NEWSER) - With the GOP candidates for 2012 out of the gates, statistics whiz Nate Silver sets the odds in the first of a 3-part series for the New York Times . The longshots will be looked at in later installments. His top four:

• Mitt Romney: 3-2 against—a 40% chance of winning the nomination. The undisputed front-runner, Romney has gained more than any other GOP candidate in the last two months. Concerns about his health care bill and his apparent lack of interest in Iowa keep him from being 50/50.

Current Republican field riddled with weak spots

(NEWSER) - Republicans talk a good game about challenging President Obama in 2012, but the GOP would look scarier if it had even one legitimate challenger , says Dick Polman. "Obama's job-approval numbers are tepid these days—but he looks robust when matched against actual Republican challengers," warns the Philadelphia Inquirer columnist. "Not to mention the inevitable wounds and scars that any Republican will suffer during a primary season that promises to be downright Darwinian." More»

GOP divided over lessons of former governor's exit

(NEWSER) - Now that Tim Pawlenty is no longer eyeing the White House , could his new target be a Senate seat? The head of the Minnesota GOP hopes so. “I think he'd make a heck of a candidate,” Tony Sutton tells Minnesota Public Radio . Pawlenty earlier rejected the idea of running against incumbent Sen. Amy Kobuchar next year, but that’s probably because he was still seeking the presidency at the time, says Sutton. “If you asked him today he'd probably say he wasn't thinking about it,” he notes. But “I think his future's bright.” More»

Disappointing finish in Iowa straw poll dooms campaign

(AP) - Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty is dropping out of the race for the GOP presidential nomination. Pawlenty told supporters on a conference call this morning that he would announce on ABC's This Week that he was ending his campaign after a disappointing finish in the Iowa straw poll yesterday. "We needed to get some lift to continue on and have a pathway forward and that didn't happen, so I'm announcing on your show that I'm ending my campaign for president," Pawlenty said. More»

He should have gone after Romney, not Bachmann: Steve Kornacki

(NEWSER) - Tim Pawlenty came off like a desperate candidate with a misguided strategy in last night's debate , writes Steve Kornacki at Salon . Going after Michele Bachmann instead of Mitt Romney? Really? He probably figured he needed to do so because she is his chief rival in tomorrow's Ames straw poll, which is do-or-die for him . If so, his thinking is "completely backward." Aggressive attacks on Bachmann—who offered a "poised, confident" defense—are destined to backfire among the conservatives in Iowa who support her. More»