Why Obama Might Lose

Conventional wisdom has it that despite everything, Barack Obama is so politically adept, and his Republican opponents so flawed, that he’ll cruise to victory in 2012. “Don’t buy into it,” advise Jim Vandehei and Mike Allen of Politico, who offer an in-depth look at everything ailing the president. Some highlights:

• Economic malaise: Nobody expects the numbers on jobs, housing, or economic growth to improve much between now and the election. Obama can argue, correctly, that it’s not his fault, but historically presidents in these conditions lose big.
• Deficit: The government will have taken on $7 trillion in debt under Obama, and “it’s hard to explain away a number so big."
• Electoral map: The states Obama won in 2008 have lost six electoral votes, and Democrats were soundly beaten in most of the nine states that swung from red to blue for him the first time. And winning Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania again will be tough.
• Accomplishments: Obama prevented an economic collapse, saved the auto industry, reformed health care, and cracked down on Wall Street—but there’s little evidence that any of it resonated with voters.

Read the full story. (More Election 2012 stories.)