Looks like President Obama can stop worrying about the 2012 election—it’s a done deal, according to American University professor Allan Lichtman. “Even if I am being conservative I don’t see how Obama can lose,” he tells US News. Lichtman has a simple system for determining who will win the presidency, and it’s been right every time since he invented it in 1981, a 7-0 record that “no other system even comes close to,” he boasts.
The system evaluates the incumbent party on 13 “keys” to reelection; if it hits at least six, it’s predicted to win. Obama scored as follows (follow the source link for details):
- The party picks up seats in the midterm. Obama loses.
- No primary challenger. Obama wins.
- Candidate is the incumbent. Obama wins.
- There’s no third-party candidate. Obama wins.
- We’re not in a recession on Election Day. The jury’s out on this one.
- The economy has been strong this term. Obama loses.
- Policies have changed since the previous administration. Obama wins.
- There is no major social unrest. Obama wins.
- The candidate hasn’t been embroiled in scandal. Obama wins.
- There have been no major foreign/military failures. Obama wins.
- There have been major foreign/military successes. Obama wins.
- The incumbent is charismatic. Obama loses.
- The challenger is charismatic. Obama wins.