Always-Right Formula Says Obama Wins 2nd Term

And a look at the 13 'keys' to success

By Kevin Spak,  Newser Staff | Suggested by Larry-Crehore

Posted Aug 31, 2011 2:05 PM CDT

(Newser) – Looks like President Obama can stop worrying about the 2012 election—it’s a done deal, according to American University professor Allan Lichtman. “Even if I am being conservative I don’t see how Obama can lose,” he tells US News. Lichtman has a simple system for determining who will win the presidency, and it’s been right every time since he invented it in 1981, a 7-0 record that “no other system even comes close to,” he boasts.

The system evaluates the incumbent party on 13 “keys” to reelection; if it hits at least six, it’s predicted to win. Obama scored as follows (follow the source link for details):

  • The party picks up seats in the midterm. Obama loses.
  • No primary challenger. Obama wins.
  • Candidate is the incumbent. Obama wins.
  • There’s no third-party candidate. Obama wins.
  • We’re not in a recession on Election Day. The jury’s out on this one.
  • The economy has been strong this term. Obama loses.
  • Policies have changed since the previous administration. Obama wins.
  • There is no major social unrest. Obama wins.
  • The candidate hasn’t been embroiled in scandal. Obama wins.
  • There have been no major foreign/military failures. Obama wins.
  • There have been major foreign/military successes. Obama wins.
  • The incumbent is charismatic. Obama loses.
  • The challenger is charismatic. Obama wins.

President Barack Obama smiles during his remarks at a fundraiser Thursday, June 30, 2011, in Philadelphia.
President Barack Obama smiles during his remarks at a fundraiser Thursday, June 30, 2011, in Philadelphia.   (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)
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19%
Annoying
5%
Hilarious
9%
Intriguing
9%
Depressing
51%
Brilliant
9%
Scary
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