Barack Obama could be in trouble. An election model from economic advisory firm IHS Global Insight is predicting a “heavy defeat” for the president, with Obama collecting a measly 43.5% of the vote, MarketWatch reports. Obama still has a shot, the firm noted, if Republicans nominate an “ineffective candidate” who can’t connect with moderate voters, or if the economy rebounds—though they deem the latter unlikely.
The model doesn’t take into account foreign policy, social policy, or any other non-economic factor, and the economists warned that the public may still blame George W. Bush for the economy’s woes. But “it does appear that this is an election that is the Republicans’ to lose,” they wrote. Still, Obama shouldn't feel too bad; at least this guy thinks he's going to win.