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Obama Is the Underdog

If economy falters, and Mitt Romney is the nominee, watch out

By Kevin Spak,  Newser Staff

Posted Nov 3, 2011 9:40 AM CDT

(Newser) – It’s too early for Nate Silver’s usual granular state-by-state election calculus, so the New York Times political prediction guru is looking at the big picture. Obama faces three main challenges: voters think he’s not up to the task, they’re terrified of the economy, and they’re ready to vote for a credible Republican. We can measure each of those things—with approval rating, GDP, and various measures of a Republican’s ideological leanings.

Obama’s approval rating is below 49%, which historically makes him “a slight, but not overwhelming underdog.” It’s unclear who the GOP will nominate, but Mitt Romney is obviously the most moderate, electable choice. Economic forecasts are utterly unreliable, so Silver is ignoring them, instead considering various scenarios:

  • Against Romney, with a stagnant economy: Obama’s odds of winning are just 17%
  • Against Romney, with a growing economy: Obama’s odds jump to 60%
  • Against Rick Perry, growing economy: Obama is an 83% favorite
  • Against Perry, stagnant economy: Obama’s odds are 41%
If Romney and Perry (or another far-right conservative) were equally likely nominees, this would amount to a tossup, but since Romney seems more likely, consider Obama an underdog. “It is early, and almost no matter what, the election will be a losable one for Republicans,” Silver concludes. “But Obama’s position is tenuous enough that it might not be a winnable one for him."

US President Barack Obama speaks at the Georgetown Waterfront Park November 2, 2011 in Washington, DC.
US President Barack Obama speaks at the Georgetown Waterfront Park November 2, 2011 in Washington, DC.   (Getty Images)
President Barack Obama arrives for G20 Summit on November 3, 2011 in Cannes, France.
President Barack Obama arrives for G20 Summit on November 3, 2011 in Cannes, France.   (Getty Images)
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COMMENTS
Showing 3 of 43 comments
lococomj
Nov 4, 2011 7:59 AM CDT
Ron Paul is the only guy running who actually cares about this country. He is logical, reasonable, honest, consistent and wise. All of the other candidates are wastes except for Romney and even Romney is too much of a flip flopper on issues for me. He's just a pretty face who the media loves. But he isn't any better than the rest of them. PAUL 2012.
JonmarkP
Nov 3, 2011 5:22 PM CDT
The poor thing doesn't have anyone is his corner except Wall Street, Investment Banks, War Profiteers and Multinational Corporations. Good thing for him they've already decided he'll serve a second term, and the votes will be counted on machines they make.
WICKET99
Nov 3, 2011 5:07 PM CDT
"credible Republican"  HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! Best damn joke I've heard in years!  Who would that be?  Perry the goof?  Cain the ignorant?  Bachmann the whack job?  Romney the flip-flopper?  Newt???  Are you JOKING?

 
Mitt Romney • Barack Obama • Rick Perry • predictions • approval ratings • Nate Silver • Election 2012 • President Obama

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