How Everyone Could Lose in the GOP Primary
A brokered convention is possible, writes Brian Bolduc
By Kevin Spak,  Newser Staff
Posted Dec 23, 2011 8:31 AM CST
Mitt Romney shakes hands with Newt Gingrich after a Republican presidential debate in Sioux City, Iowa, Dec. 15.   (AP Photo/Eric Gay)

(Newser) – Are you the kind of political junky who’s just dying to see complete chaos break out at the Republican National Convention? Well, good news: Brian Bolduc at the National Review has broken down the numbers and concluded that it’s actually conceivable—if not especially likely—that we could see a brokered convention, with no candidate reaching the 1,142-delegate threshold to win on the first ballot.

Based on current polls, we could see Ron Paul win Iowa, Mitt Romney win New Hampshire, and Newt Gingrich win South Carolina and Florida, knocking everyone else out. From there, Romney wins the northern states and blue states, while Gingrich wins the South. But since states voting before April must now award delegates proportionally, Ron Paul could keep racking up delegates, especially in caucus states. In the end, Gingrich and Paul could have more votes combined than Romney. Is it likely? No. "But it’s just plausible enough to keep interest in a candidate not currently in the field alive," writes Bolduc.

My Take on This Story