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Finally, Sun Through the Economic Clouds

Thanks to improving housing market, private debt: Paul Krugman

By Matt Cantor,  Newser Staff

Posted Jan 23, 2012 9:53 AM CST

(Newser) – The economy has had its share of false starts over the past few years, but this time things could really be improving, opines Paul Krugman. "There’s evidence that the two great problems at the root of our slump—the housing bust and excessive private debt—are finally easing," he notes in the New York Times. House prices have returned to where they were in 2003, in the middle of the bubble. And right now, the country is looking "seriously underprovided" on the housing front.

We may be en route to a "virtuous circle": a better economy means people buy more houses, which prompts more building, which means a better economy. "Something like that may be starting: home sales are up, unemployment claims are down, and builders’ confidence is rising," Krugman notes. Meanwhile, private debt has been dropping since 2008. We have President Obama and the Federal Reserve to thank: Had we slashed spending or "tightened money" as congressional Republicans wanted, we wouldn't be seeing this improvement. The Republicans want to "emulate Europe's failure"—so we'd better be careful at the polls in November, Krugman writes.

The economy is looking up, says Paul Krugman, thanks in large part to Obama's resistance to Republican efforts.
The economy is looking up, says Paul Krugman, thanks in large part to Obama's resistance to Republican efforts.   (AP Photo/Aaron Favila)
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COMMENTS
Showing 3 of 186 comments
JoeUSA
Jan 24, 2012 3:34 AM CST
From Zero Hedge: People that scour the numbers and give serious investors the hard data.....discuss this! "One does not need to be a rocket scientist to grasp the fudging the BLS has been doing every month for years now in order to bring the unemployment rate lower: the BLS constantly lowers the labor force participation rate as more and more people “drop out” of the labor force for one reason or another. While there is some floating speculation that this is due to early retirement, this is completely counterfactual when one also considers the overall rise in the general civilian non institutional population. …we are redoing an analysis we did first back in August 2010, which shows what the real unemployment rate would be using a realistic labor force participation rate. To get that we used the average rate since 1980, or ever since the great moderation began. As it happens, this long-term average is 65.8%. We then apply this participation rate to the civilian non-institutional population to get what an “implied” labor force number is, and additionally calculate the implied unemployed using this more realistic labor force. We then show the difference between the reported and implied unemployed. Finally, we calculate the jobless rate using this new implied data. It won’t surprise anyone that as of December, the real implied unemployment rate was 11.4%  – basically where it has been ever since 2009 – and at 2.9% delta to reported, represents the widest divergence to reported data since the early 1980s. And because we know this will be the next question, extending this lunacy, America will officially have no unemployed, when the Labor Force Participation rate hits 58.5%, which should be just before the presidential election." Yeah....Obama...jobs creator.......sure.
JoeUSA
Jan 24, 2012 2:47 AM CST
Krugman's a turd. Cheerleading for his "prince". The facts  - REAL facts show a MUCH different picture.
Tis_I
Jan 23, 2012 4:28 PM CST
Why is it that the trolls on the forum are so angry? They seem so full of hate and vitrol. If they would be honest with themselves they might be a bit more amicable, especially to the other posters on the site. Anger takes energy - why give up so much energy hating. Take that energy, do some research and find out some facts about how OUR PRESIDENT OBAMA is trying to get things accomplished for the people. Ranting and raving and spewing nonsense contributes nothing to any conversation.

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