Gingrich the Favorite in Florida

Nate Silver's model gives him a 75% chance of victory, with some 'buts'

By Kevin Spak,  Newser Staff

Posted Jan 25, 2012 2:00 PM CST

(Newser) – With Florida less than a week away, Nate Silver is busily crunching the numbers, and while the polls are a tad contradictory, they do show a clear favorite: Newt Gingrich. Indeed, Silver's system gives Gingrich a whopping 75% chance of victory, although that "seems like too confident a prediction, frankly," he writes for the New York Times. Gingrich has only a modest poll lead, after all, and Romney does have some advantages.

Romney, for example, has focused on Florida longer, has poured some $14 million into ads there (counting super PAC ads), and may have built a bit of an early voting lead. But Gingrich has advantages, too: He's from neighboring Georgia, and does well with Florida's elderly residents. "The non-polling factors do not clearly favor one or the other candidate, in my view," Silver concludes, making "Gingrich the favorite for now—but not a clear favorite."

Newt Gingrich,and his wife Callista meet with supporters at Wings Plus Restaurant, Jan. 25, 2012, in Coral Springs, Fla.
Newt Gingrich,and his wife Callista meet with supporters at Wings Plus Restaurant, Jan. 25, 2012, in Coral Springs, Fla.   (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)
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