Super Tuesday: Who Looks Poised to Grab What

Mitt Romney basically has 4 of the 10 states in the bag

By Evann Gastaldo,  Newser Staff

Posted Mar 5, 2012 7:19 AM CST

(Newser) – Tomorrow is looking good for Mitt Romney, who will likely take more of the 422 delegates up for grabs in Super Tuesday contests than his opponents (an additional 15 super delegates aren't bound to tomorrow's wins). He may even walk away with a delegate majority, writes Nate Silver. A look at the landscape, from the New York Times, Politico, Public Policy Polling, and the Wall Street Journal:

  • Georgia (76 delegates): Newt Gingrich will almost certainly win, but Romney could "win by losing," Politico notes: A Gingrich win could keep Newt in the race, where he'll continue to siphon conservative votes from Rick Santorum. (Plus, Romney could still take up to a third of the delegates due to distribution rules.)
  • Ohio (66 delegates): Romney has been closing in on Santorum here, and though the race is too close to call, some think Romney's momentum will propel him to a win. Even if it does not, he will likely take the most delegates, since Santorum may be ineligible for 18 of them.
  • Tennessee (58 delegates): Romney is also closing in on Santorum here, and an upset victory—which is possible—would be symbolically huge for him, showing he holds appeal even in the South.

  • Virginia (46 delegates): Thanks to Santorum and Gingrich not making it on the ballot, Romney will almost certainly take all the delegates (Ron Paul could snatch three).
  • Oklahoma (43 delegates): This is the state where Santorum looks the strongest, and is poised to win most of the delegates; the latest polls show him with a significant advantage over Romney.
  • Massachusetts (41 delegates): Romney is looking at a win in his home state, but delegates are distributed proportionally so he won't take quite all of them.
  • Idaho (32 delegates): Another all-but-certain Romney win, thanks to the large Mormon population; he'll likely take all the delegates.
  • North Dakota (28 delegates): The open caucus means if Ron Paul is going to win anywhere, he's going to win here: And he's campaigning in Fargo tomorrow. (Silver, however, figures the delegate distribution will be about even between Santorum, Romney, and Paul.)
  • Alaska (24 delegates): The candidates have largely ignored the state while campaigning, except Paul, who has been airing ads, has raised the most money in the state, and enjoys a strong libertarian base in the state. Silver again figures a fairly even delegate distribution for Santorum, Romney, and Paul.
  • Vermont (17 delegates): And a fourth all-but-certain Romney win, although he may not reach a winner-take-all majority.

Rick Santorum, left, makes a point as Mitt Romney listens during a Republican presidential debate Wednesday, Feb. 22, 2012, in Mesa, Ariz.
Rick Santorum, left, makes a point as Mitt Romney listens during a Republican presidential debate Wednesday, Feb. 22, 2012, in Mesa, Ariz.   (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)
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