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You're Probably Sub-Average

Bell curve may misrepresent human performance

By Matt Cantor,  Newser Staff

Posted May 3, 2012 3:21 PM CDT

(Newser) – We tend to think of human performance as fitting a bell curve: Most people's output is about average, while there are a few outliers who are either extremely talented or very much the opposite. But people might not work that way, a new study suggests. Researchers analyzed the performance of four very different kinds of people—athletes, academics, entertainers, and politicians—and found a healthy dose of outliers. Meanwhile, "a small minority of superstar performers contribute a disproportionate amount of the output," said a researcher.

Most subjects' work fell below the mathematical average, NPR reports. For instance, some 80% of Emmy nominees received fewer nominations than the mean number. But a minority picked up a disproportionately-sized chunk of the nods. In the end, the researchers say, the bell-curve notion may only apply when external constraints are involved. "If you had a superstar performer working at your factory, well, that person could not do [a] better job than the assembly line would allow," says one of the investigators. The take-home message: Countries and companies should keep an eye out for such "superstars," who will likely contribute a disproportionate amount to the group's output.

The bell curve may not be an accurate representation of human performance.
The bell curve may not be an accurate representation of human performance.   (Shutterstock)
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COMMENTS
Showing 3 of 65 comments
Nikki_Redhead
Jun 30, 2012 4:49 PM CDT
As a music fan, this article ruffled my feathers. How can truly measure the performance of artists by counting awards or sales? The so-called superstars they refer to are just hit factories that reach 10M+ listeners with palatable pop music and pacify audiences. ow.ly/bW6nB
maroci
May 4, 2012 12:21 PM CDT
Though I'm sure this varies depending on field, it's not exactly surprising. It would in fact be quite surprising if it turned out the median and mean were equal. It generally isn't.
Nimitz
May 4, 2012 1:25 AM CDT
"The take-home message" indeed.  Another systematized means of vetting for class.   Saying "little Johnny can't play with the other kids 'cuz he's black/white/yellow/red/smart/stupid/______" was too brutal.  Nowadays we're much more 'refined.'  We can pop your ass into whatever pigeonhole we like . . . and you'll be none the wiser. Literally.
 

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