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Mars Smash Looking Likelier

Still a longshot, but cosmic collision now a 25-1 chance

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(Newser) – Scientists say the chances of a giant asteroid smashing into Mars on January 30 have gone up steeply, the AP reports. It's still a 25-1 longshot, but stargazers have their fingers crossed. I think it'll be cool," said a NASA tracker. "Usually when an asteroid is headed toward Earth, I'm not rooting for an impact."

Scientists had thought there was a 75-1 chance that the newly discovered asteroid, the size of a football field, would crash into Mars and create a giant crater, but a Ph.D student pored through data and shortened the odds. They're likely to lengthen again as the date gets closer. The likelihood "peaks before plummeting to zero with additional data," the NASA watcher said. The rock is hurtling towards Mars at 27,900 mph, but will not put Earth in any danger.

This image provided by NASA's Hubble Space Telescope shows a close-up of the red planet Mars when it was closest to the Hubble Space Telescope - just 55 million miles (88 million kilometers) away taken with Hubble's Wide Field and Planetary Camera 2. Mars was closest to Earth on Dec....
This image provided by NASA's Hubble Space Telescope shows a close-up of the red planet Mars when it was closest to the Hubble Space Telescope - just 55 million miles (88 million kilometers) away taken...   (Associated Press)
This undated image provided by NASA Jan. 23, 2006 shows a false-color image taken by NASA's Mars Exploration Rover Opportunity's camera showing the dune crests in the Endurance Crater. Scientists have updated the chances of a newly-discovered asteroid slamming into the Red Planet, saying the space rock now has a...
This undated image provided by NASA Jan. 23, 2006 shows a false-color image taken by NASA's Mars Exploration Rover Opportunity's camera showing the dune crests in the Endurance Crater. Scientists have...   (Associated Press)
An image of Mars captured by the Mars Express. Scientists have upgraded the chances of a huge asteroid smashing into Mars up from 75-1 to 25=1.
An image of Mars captured by the Mars Express. Scientists have upgraded the chances of a huge asteroid smashing into Mars up from 75-1 to 25=1.   (Getty Images)
In this photo made by the Mars rover Opportunity and released in this Oct. 2006 file photo, by NASA shows a view of the
In this photo made by the Mars rover Opportunity and released in this Oct. 2006 file photo, by NASA shows a view of the "Victoria crater" looking southeast from "Duck Bay." A newly discovered asteroid...   (Associated Press)
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