Nate Silver sifts through the latest polls and finds good news for President Obama after the Democratic convention, he writes at his FiveThirtyEight blog for the New York Times:
- Gallup: Obama leads Mitt Romney by 3 points, up from 1. The president's Gallup approval ratings also rose, to 52%.
- Rasmussen: Obama trails Romney by 1 point, but he had trailed by 3.
- Ipsos: He leads Romney by 2 points, up by 1.
Some potentially big caveats apply, including lackluster reviews for Obama's speech and that weak jobs report yesterday, but "so far, this data is tracking toward a decent-size convention bounce for Mr. Obama," writes Silver. This doesn't bode well for Romney, he adds, given that the Republican entered the conventions trailing slightly and doesn't seem to have made up any ground. Silver's forecast has Obama with a 78.1% chance of winning. Read the full piece here.