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Undecided Voters Will Swing Election? Not So Much

Ezra Klein explains why this idea is a myth

By Evann Gastaldo,  Newser Staff

Posted Sep 27, 2012 1:05 PM CDT

(Newser) – You hear a lot about undecided voters and the supposedly decisive impact they will have on the election—and both candidates are certainly doing what they can to win over that group in the final weeks of the campaign—but at Bloomberg, Ezra Klein explains why that whole idea is a myth. A more correct way of describing the undecided voter is "uninterested and, frankly, uninformed," Klein writes. That doesn't mean they're dumb, it just means they don't care. One study found most of them can't identify John Boehner as a congressman, and just 69% knew Joe Biden was the vice president.

That's because they're just not paying much attention to politics—which means they're not hearing about the gaffes or the triumphs of either candidate. And they probably won't watch the debates. "To people personally invested in politics, the homestretch of the campaign appears loaded with the kind of political information that could change voter opinions," Klein writes. But the truth is, when such information is revealed, undecided voters aren't even likely to hear about it. When push comes to shove, the undecided voters will probably break evenly. So "if Obama is going to turn this into a rout, or if Romney is to salvage a win, it will probably require changing minds that are already made up, or increasing (or suppressing) turnout among base voters." Click for Klein's full column.

Presidential and vice presidential candidate names are seen on a ballot at the Polk County Election Office, Wednesday, Sept. 26, 2012, in Des Moines, Iowa.
Presidential and vice presidential candidate names are seen on a ballot at the Polk County Election Office, Wednesday, Sept. 26, 2012, in Des Moines, Iowa.   (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)
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SNL's take on the undecided voter.   (NBC)

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In other words, don’t expect the votes of the mythical undecideds to actually be decisive. It’s likely to be the decided who will, well, decide. - Ezra Klein

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COMMENTS
Showing 3 of 11 comments
saucier111
Sep 27, 2012 4:58 PM CDT
We need to know more about Romney's 70 million in fictional losses to the IRS as part of his [son of boss tax scandal ] One of the largest tax avoidance schemes in history. Mitt tell us more on how you managed to borrow 1.3 billion dollars of tax payer money from George W. Bush. To keep your winter olympic games very profitable for a few in Utah in 2002. It appears that Mitt has been putting it to tax payers for years.
LoginsSuck
Sep 27, 2012 3:57 PM CDT
Most interested voters who are not straight party ticket voters (independent/undecided) like to wait until they get all the facts and substantive info in front of them before they can make a decision. As of right now Romney hasn't give out enough detailed info to make me lean toward him much less vote for him. I am hoping more will come out in the debates, but not holding my breath. Short of that, I'm left with Obama who may have trouble getting things passed, but I know Obama won't do major harm to the economy with tried and failed supply side theories.
fractal
Sep 27, 2012 2:32 PM CDT
Voter turnout plus Repug election fraud will decide. Volunteer to drive people to the polls, and beware of roving bands of rightys at the polling stations, who have come to "observe".   They are there to find any possible reason to squeal like a stuck pig, and they will be at the strategic locations in close congressional elections, and swing states. www.nytimes.com/2012/09/22/opinion/voter-harassment-circa-2012.html?_r=0 I have lived in the same location for 20 years, and this could effect me. In the 20's, when my building was registered with the city, they numbered the north and south side of the building differently--by one numeral. Almost no one uses that distinction anymore, and the leases all call the apts the same address. The building itself only has one address displayed. But the electric company etc... refuse to change their old records without an act of god. So, when necessary, we just explain the discrepancy. Half the people in my building---about 18 of us, could potentially be refused the right to vote--even if our drivers license matches the voter registration card and the lease.
 

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