After an NBC poll found a tie at 47% yesterday, a Politico-George Washington University tracking poll today offers a different take on the presidential race that has Mitt Romney leading President Obama 49% to 47% nationally. It's the first time since early May that Romney has led in the poll, Politico notes. And in 10 states Politico deems competitive, Romney is up 50% to 48%. In other election numbers:
- Romney and the GOP are also ahead on the cash front, by some $46 million, USA Today reports. But the Obama campaign has control over two-thirds of Democratic campaign cash, whereas much of the Republican money is in the party's hands rather than Romney's. But with $2 billion raised between the two campaigns and their parties, neither candidate lacks the means for an intense last push. Indeed, Romney held his final official fundraiser on Saturday night, CNN notes.
- While Politico sees President Obama's lead among women shrinking, Nate Silver notes at FiveThirtyEight that "if only women voted, President Obama would be on track for a landslide re-election." If men were the only voters, the election would be Romney's. Polls show an average gender gap of 18 points, near the 20-point gap that set a record in 2000.
- Not much changed in the polls this weekend, Silver adds. While Obama saw gains in three daily tracking polls, he fell back in two. At the moment, he stands a 67.6% chance of winning the election, according to the FiveThirtyEight model this morning. But since we're in "the political equivalent of the eighth inning," that forecast could change a lot in the coming days.
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