New Poll: Romney Leads Obama 49%-47%
GOP ahead $46B in cash race
By Matt Cantor, Newser User
Posted Oct 22, 2012 7:11 AM CDT
In this Oct. 10, 2012 file photo, Mitt Romney gestures during a town hall meeting at Ariel Corporation in Mt. Vernon, Ohio.   (AP Photo/ Evan Vucci, File)

(Newser) – After an NBC poll found a tie at 47% yesterday, a Politico-George Washington University tracking poll today offers a different take on the presidential race that has Mitt Romney leading President Obama 49% to 47% nationally. It's the first time since early May that Romney has led in the poll, Politico notes. And in 10 states Politico deems competitive, Romney is up 50% to 48%. In other election numbers:

  • Romney and the GOP are also ahead on the cash front, by some $46 million, USA Today reports. But the Obama campaign has control over two-thirds of Democratic campaign cash, whereas much of the Republican money is in the party's hands rather than Romney's. But with $2 billion raised between the two campaigns and their parties, neither candidate lacks the means for an intense last push. Indeed, Romney held his final official fundraiser on Saturday night, CNN notes.

  • While Politico sees President Obama's lead among women shrinking, Nate Silver notes at FiveThirtyEight that "if only women voted, President Obama would be on track for a landslide re-election." If men were the only voters, the election would be Romney's. Polls show an average gender gap of 18 points, near the 20-point gap that set a record in 2000.
  • Not much changed in the polls this weekend, Silver adds. While Obama saw gains in three daily tracking polls, he fell back in two. At the moment, he stands a 67.6% chance of winning the election, according to the FiveThirtyEight model this morning. But since we're in "the political equivalent of the eighth inning," that forecast could change a lot in the coming days.
Click for more on what to look for in tonight's debate.

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Showing 3 of 30 comments
Oct 22, 2012 8:28 PM CDT
Well, its pretty easy to see who is on the gov. tit, Those on here about to lose their minds, and free money! I love the liberal mind, I have seen on here some of you want to poll the poll results, You can poll until you are blue ( pun intended), and It will not change the FACT that America is tired of the only thing Obama proposes is Spending/Jobs bills, costing Billions, that are Give-a ways to Unions and his cronies!
Oct 22, 2012 3:23 PM CDT
Conservative voters deserve someone like Mitt but not the rest of the country.
Oct 22, 2012 12:53 PM CDT
An Analysis of Romney's Tax Plan By the "Tax Policy Center" shows:1. PEOPLE MAKING OVER $1 MILLION RECEIVE HUGE TAX CUTS:$1 million = $83,000 tax cut$5 million = $166,000 tax cut$10 million = $830,000 tax cut$50 million = $1.66 million tax cut.Average tax cut for people making more than $1 million is $175,000.2.THE MIDDLE CLASS RECEIVES A BIG TAX INCREASE. Romney's plan increases middle class taxes by an average of $2,007 a year.3. TO MAKE IT REVENUE NEUTRAL HE HAS TO RAISE TAXES ON THE MIDDLE CLASS. Romney's plan reduces Revenue by $360 billion per year and would increase the debt by $4.4 trillion Over 10 years.Romney has promised to make the tax bill revenue neutral by eliminating loop holes, but he has made many loop holes for the rich off limits. That means Romney will have to cut tax benefits that effect the middle class more than the rich. These include Mortgage Interest Deductions, Exclusions for Employer for Health Insurance, etc.In other words, he has to shift $86 billion in taxes away from the Rich and put them on the Poor and the Middle Class. This is what it looks like:Bottom 20% = $720 tax INCREASE.Next 20% = $1,166 tax INCREASE.Middle 20% = $2,007 tax INCREASE.