With the Iowa caucuses behind us, the New Republic pivots to New Hampshire. The second state to vote will do so Tuesday. What’s in play:
- Independents. They make up 40% of the electorate and can vote for either party. Barack Obama and John McCain tend to poll well in this group.
- Youth. In 2004, New Hampshire had massive youth turnout. Obama's been turning out young voters, but Hillary Clinton scores well with them.
- Organization. Bill Clinton’s legacy is strong, but so is Obama’s team. Across the aisle, Mitt Romney dominates.
- Endorsements. McCain generally rules the Republican side; no clear leader among Democrats.
- Odds and ends. Rudy Giuliani has flown the coop for Florida, boosting McCain. And Obama’s support has gradually risen for 2 months.