If this year's presidential election was determined by the popular vote, it would be anybody's game. A new Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll today has President Obama leading by 1 point—essentially a statistical tie—while Investors Business Daily's poll has Obama up by 2.3 points. But in Gallup's daily poll, Romney gained ground, extending his lead from 3 points to 4. All of which mainly squares up with yesterday's numbers, which saw Obama rise in three polls, and Romney rise in three others, FiveThirtyEight guru Nate Silver observes.
But the election is actually determined by the Electoral College, and Obama has the edge there, leading in nine battleground state polls released yesterday. The only bright spots for Romney were two polls showing him up by 2 in Virginia—but another had Obama up 5 there. Ohio remains the most important state, and Silver gives Obama a 75% chance of winning it—which "is, not coincidentally, close to Mr. Obama's 73% overall chance of winning." Other states are in play as well, however; a Rasmussen poll out today has Wisconsin dead even at 49% to 49%. Scott Rasmussen predicts it "may be the new Ohio," providing Romney's only hope if he loses the Buckeye state.