Rove: Romney's Going to Win a Squeaker

Poll numbers, early results all in Romney's favor, says Karl Rove
By Mark Russell,  Newser Staff
Posted Nov 1, 2012 1:09 PM CDT
Karl Rove speaking to members of the media on Dec. 1, 2011 in Sandestin, Fla. Rove thinks poll numbers point to a narrow win for Mitt Romney on Tuesday.   (AP Photo/Northwest Florida Daily)
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(Newser) – Political guru Karl Rove may be predicting a Mitt Romney win next week, but at least he's keeping his predictions more modest than Dick Morris' "landslide." Instead, Rove notes in the Wall Street Journal that Romney has a thin lead in national polls—he's ahead in 19 out of 31 national surveys, averaging to a 48.4% to 47.2% advantage. Rove also points to early voting numbers, arguing they show a weaker Democratic turnout compared to four years ago and better numbers for Republicans.

In key state Ohio alone, Democrat early votes are down 181,275 from 2008, while Republicans are up 75,858—that's a 257,133-vote swing, which nearly equals President Obama's winning margin from last election, 262,224. Add up the data, along with Romney's better crowd sizes and other intangibles, and Rove thinks next Tuesday will belong to Romney. "Let's call it 51% to 48%, with Mr. Romney carrying at least 279 Electoral College votes, probably more," writes Rove. Read his full piece here. (Read more Karl Rove stories.)

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