As Clock Winds Down, Race Is a Nail-Biter
Obama shows slight leads in many polls, others deadlocked
By Polly Davis Doig, Newser Staff
Posted Nov 4, 2012 12:12 PM CST
Campaign signs for both President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney are seen in yards outside Evans City, Pa., Friday, Nov. 2, 2012.   (AP Photo/Keith Srakocic)

(Newser) – With the hourglass blessedly running out on Election 2012, Team Obama is scrambling to get out the vote, while Team Romney is making a late move for Pennsylvania, as the AP reports that both campaigns are projecting confidence going into Tuesday's vote. A look around the landscape and the final poll numbers:

  • The latest Washington Post/ABC News poll puts the candidates even at 48%, a number it says has "barely fluctuated." The incumbent appears to have a slight advantage in terms of electoral votes, and Republicans are likely to keep the House as Democrats should hang onto the Senate. Click for the lengthy report.
  • According to NBC/WSJ, the race is neck-and-neck with President Obama at 48% among likely voters to Mitt Romney's 47%. That gives Obama a slight leg up from two weeks ago, when both candidates had 47%.

  • Public Policy Polling gives Obama a 50% to 47% lead nationally, in what it says is the first time either candidate has opened up a lead of more than 2 points.
  • In Iowa, the Des Moines Register gives Obama a 47% to 42% edge, though a scant majority trust him more with the economy. “If Romney can’t catch up here, he probably can’t catch up elsewhere," says a Dem pollster. "Without Iowa and Ohio, Romney’s path to victory is incredibly narrow.”
  • In Ohio, the Columbus Dispatch gives Obama a 50% to 48% lead, though that's within the survey's 2.2% margin of error, and the paper notes that strong GOP turnout could sway the Buckeye State for Romney.
  • In Pennsylvania, the Pittsburgh Tribune puts the race in a dead heat at 47% all, with a 3.46% margin of error. Some 60% of those surveyed remain negative about the economy.
  • Nate Silver, meanwhile, is giving Obama a better than 80% chance of an electoral vote win in case of a tie in the popular vote. Click for his polling breakdown.

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Showing 3 of 79 comments
Nov 5, 2012 12:14 PM CST
When an incumbent, who has had four years to show what he can do, can't get beyond tying the rival I guess it tells the kind of job the incumbent has done!
Nov 5, 2012 5:31 AM CST
The "smartest" tactic Republcans have done is to cultivate a party that is now known as racist. Black GOP surrogates even go on TV defending the party! They're being taken for fools but heck, it's worth the paycheck for them.
Nov 4, 2012 10:10 PM CST
The tightening of the race could simply be the transition from the regular bias of the pretend journalists to media's traditional bias in favor of the "close contest" -- i.e. the media's desire for two boxers who are both undefeated, for the World Series to go to Game 7, the NBA to go to Game 7, and etc, everything to be a "nail-biter" so everybody in the world tunes in for the best ratings. It could be some variation of this late-stage morphing from regular bias to "close game ratings bias"-- the transition from one to the other.