As Clock Winds Down, Race Is a Nail-Biter

Obama shows slight leads in many polls, others deadlocked

By Polly Davis Doig,  Newser Staff

Posted Nov 4, 2012 12:12 PM CST

(Newser) – With the hourglass blessedly running out on Election 2012, Team Obama is scrambling to get out the vote, while Team Romney is making a late move for Pennsylvania, as the AP reports that both campaigns are projecting confidence going into Tuesday's vote. A look around the landscape and the final poll numbers:

  • The latest Washington Post/ABC News poll puts the candidates even at 48%, a number it says has "barely fluctuated." The incumbent appears to have a slight advantage in terms of electoral votes, and Republicans are likely to keep the House as Democrats should hang onto the Senate. Click for the lengthy report.
  • According to NBC/WSJ, the race is neck-and-neck with President Obama at 48% among likely voters to Mitt Romney's 47%. That gives Obama a slight leg up from two weeks ago, when both candidates had 47%.

  • Public Policy Polling gives Obama a 50% to 47% lead nationally, in what it says is the first time either candidate has opened up a lead of more than 2 points.
  • In Iowa, the Des Moines Register gives Obama a 47% to 42% edge, though a scant majority trust him more with the economy. “If Romney can’t catch up here, he probably can’t catch up elsewhere," says a Dem pollster. "Without Iowa and Ohio, Romney’s path to victory is incredibly narrow.”
  • In Ohio, the Columbus Dispatch gives Obama a 50% to 48% lead, though that's within the survey's 2.2% margin of error, and the paper notes that strong GOP turnout could sway the Buckeye State for Romney.
  • In Pennsylvania, the Pittsburgh Tribune puts the race in a dead heat at 47% all, with a 3.46% margin of error. Some 60% of those surveyed remain negative about the economy.
  • Nate Silver, meanwhile, is giving Obama a better than 80% chance of an electoral vote win in case of a tie in the popular vote. Click for his polling breakdown.

Campaign signs for both President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney are seen in yards outside Evans City, Pa., Friday, Nov. 2, 2012.
Campaign signs for both President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney are seen in yards outside Evans City, Pa., Friday, Nov. 2, 2012.   (AP Photo/Keith Srakocic)
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