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Are Pollsters the Biggest Losers in NH?

Posted Jan 9, 08 1:17 PM CST in Politics 

(Newser) – The New Hampshire primary was the biggest high-profile poll upset in memory, says Talking Points Memo’s Josh Marshall—but don’t jump too far down pollsters’ throats. Marshall has a hunch the polls weren’t “wrong,” but rather couldn’t capture a “late swing,” a last-minute “transcendent moment.” Pundits my have been pulling for Obama, but collusion with pollsters doesn't track, he argues. “Polls are usually right.”

It might be that Hillary Clinton connected in the final moments, or that Obama’s bounce dissolved naturally, but it’s no good to second-guess pollsters who missed “a dramatic, unexpected result.” It's convenient, adds ABC’s Gary Lawler, for pollsters to “fault their respondents” rather than “own up” to sampling and modeling failures—but last-minute decisions and two “groundbreaking candidates” may just have overwhelmed the wisdom of surveys.

Sources: Talking Points Memo, New York Observer, ABC News

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Democratic presidential hopeful, Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., embraces her husband former President Clinton during a victory party after winning the New Hampshire Democratic primary in Manchester, N.H.,...   (Associated Press)
Republican presidential hopeful Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., and his wife Cindy react in his hotel room to his win on election night in Nashua, N.H., Tuesday, Jan. 8, 2008. McCain won the New Hampshire...   (Associated Press)
Two supporters of Democratic presidential hopeful Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., stay seated in the near empty stands after his primary night rally Tuesday, Jan. 8, 2008, in Nashua, N.H. Obama finished second...   (Associated Press)
Supporters of Democratic presidential hopeful Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., cheer in front of a big screen as they watch the Associated Press call Clinton the winner of the New Hampshire primary...   (Associated Press)
Supporters cheer as Democratic presidential hopeful Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., takes the stage in Manchester, N.H., Tuesday, Jan. 8, 2008, after her Democratic primary win in the state.(AP...   (Associated Press)
Supporters cheer as Democratic presidential hopeful Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., takes the stage in Manchester, N.H., Tuesday, Jan. 8, 2008, after her Democratic primary win in the state.(AP...   (Associated Press)
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Barack Obama  • Hillary Clinton  • John McCain  • election 2008  • poll


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