Goldman Predicts Recession

Confidence is falling as inflation rises

(NEWSER) - Consumer spending rose more than expected in January—but only because prices did so as well, Bloomberg reports. Adjusted for inflation, spending remained flat for the second straight month. With fuel costs rising, banks restricting loans, and property values falling, “consumers are clearly hard-pressed to maintain their standard of living and are cutting back,” says an analyst. More»

Reserve officials sharply reduce economic forecast

(NEWSER) - The Federal Reserve issued a bleak assessment of the economy today, predicting weak growth and rising unemployment this year. Fed officials expect the economy to grow between 1.3% and 2% in 2008, the slowest in five years, the New York Times reports. A separate report today showed consumer prices rising, putting the Fed in a tricky spot as it weighs another rate cut against fears of inflation. More»

Economic growth balances looming threat of inflation

(NEWSER) - The unemployment rate increased slightly in the second quarter, but the GDP recovered after a lackluster first quarter, providing Wall Street with a mixed report card of the nation’s economy as the Fed meets to determine interest rates. Unemployment ticked up 0.1% to 4.6%, hastened by losses in manufacturing, construction, and government, the WSJ reports. More»

(NEWSER) - Economists think the US unemployment rate will stay above 9% through 2010, the Wall Street Journal survey finds. Accordingly, those in the know believe the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates down at least through spring. “For real people, there is no recovery until the unemployment rate stabilizes,” one economist said. “If the Fed starts raising rates in the face of continued job losses, it could abort a recovery.” More»

(NEWSER) - The Federal Reserve anticipates the recession will continue through 2009 despite its recent rate slash and other planned “nontraditional policies,” the Wall Street Journal reports. Minutes of the Fed's December 15-16 meeting, at which it cut rates to nearly zero, indicate a deep pessimism about the economy. Officials expect the unemployment rate to keep rising as the GDP contracts. More»