Nate Silver: We'll Have Gay Marriage Before 2020
Support has been rising steadily for 9 years, he finds
By Rob Quinn, Newser Staff
Posted Mar 27, 2013 12:34 AM CDT
Billy Bradford of Castro Valley, Calif., waves a pair of flags outside San Francisco City Hall while same-sex couple line up to see if they can be married in San Francisco, Thursday, August 12, 2010.    (AP Photo/Eric Risberg)

(Newser) – The second of two landmark gay rights cases is before the Supreme Court today, but supporters of marriage equality can take heart even if the decisions don't go their way, says New York Times stats whiz Nate Silver. Support for gay marriage hasn't surged recently, he finds, but it has been steadily increasing since around 2004 and supporters are almost certain to be in the majority nationwide soon. Gay marriage would probably have lost in a national referendum last year, but would narrowly win in 2016, according to Silver's projections.

The steady rise in support means ballot initiatives to legalize gay marriage would succeed in 32 states by 2016 and in 44 states by 2020, with support above 48% in every state except Alabama and Mississippi, Silver projects. It is "the steadiness of the trend that makes same-sex marriage virtually unique among all major public policy issues, and which might give its supporters more confidence that the numbers will continue to break their way regardless of what the Supreme Court decides," he writes. (Click for Silver's full column.) Bill O'Reilly is also surveying the landscape, and Politico reports that he agrees that the wind is at the back of gay marriage advocates: "The compelling argument is on the side of homosexuals," he said on his show last night; they "just want to be treated like everybody else. The other side hasn’t been able to do anything but thump the Bible."

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Mar 27, 2013 11:36 AM CDT
And I might add that the other things that will be added by 2020 will be Polygamy, Incest and legalized MBLA and because if your not for those thing you are hater just like the folks that are against gay marriage. They will force this issue down everyone throat excuse the pun, but it will open the flood gates to other taboo sexual unions that society has deemed unhealthy for our moral fiber. Every great empire and society ends and our is on the road Europe is about 10 years ahead of us while the are being breed out of existence by Muslims the same thing is happening here with Hispanics it will all end badly.
Mar 27, 2013 9:22 AM CDT
Controversy and the media can fan the fire of any issue to their own demise!
Mar 27, 2013 8:46 AM CDT
Gay marriage would probably have lost in a national referendum last year,... Please, let's stop talking about referendums concerning things that are guaranteed by the Constitution. We shouldn't be voting on whether or not we want to do what the Constitution tells us to do. If you want to disallow gay marriage then let's talk about changing the Constitution to say we should have equal rights except for certain minorities.