Rudy Giuliani's supporters predict a distant finish in Florida's Jan. 29 primary will cost him in Feb. 5 voting in strongholds New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut. A strategy of focusing on Florida while ignoring early states has seen Giuliani plummet in Republican polls. "If he carries Florida, he carries New York," one former adviser told the New York Times, but "I wouldn't bet on it."
A win or close second in Florida should bring Giuliani victory in the New York tri-state area on Super Duper Tuesday; the three winner-take-all states would give him 183 delegates, about 15% of what's needed to clinch the nomination. And his focus on Florida isn't exactly paying off—polls show he's fallen into a dead heat with McCain, Romney, and Huckabee.