Nate Silver: Bachmann's Exit Great for GOP

Stats guru thinks Democrats now less likely to take the district

By Kevin Spak,  Newser Staff

Posted May 30, 2013 8:46 AM CDT

(Newser) – We told you yesterday that Democrats would rue the day Michele Bachmann threw in the towel, but now Nate Silver has crunched the numbers to confirm it. In his New York Times blog, Silver plots out Democratic House candidates' performance alongside how well President Obama fared in that district. Bachmann's very conservative district is among those in which the Democrat significantly outperformed Obama.

Most of the other outperforming Democrats came when the blue team "had a longtime incumbent of their own running—not when they were running against one." Democrats could still pick up Bachmann's seat, but don't bet anything on it—the odds "might now be on the order of 5% to 10%, versus perhaps 40% with Mrs. Bachmann on the ballot," Silver says. Click for his full column.

This image taken from michelebachmann.com, shows Congresswoman Michele Bachmann making a video announcement on her website.
This image taken from michelebachmann.com, shows Congresswoman Michele Bachmann making a video announcement on her website.   (AP Photo/michelebachmann.com)
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