Just how bad are things for President Obama a year into his second term? So bad that if the American people got a mulligan on the 2012 election, there's a good shot we'd be looking at a President Romney. A Washington Post-ABC News poll reveals that if the election were held today, Obama would lose the popular vote 45% to 49%. While the Post reminds us that the Electoral College, not the popular vote, is the ultimate decider, it notes that spread roughly mirrors the 4 points Obama actually won by, and reflects plummeting support from his key demographics:
- Obama won women by 11 points; now, his edge is down to one point.
- He won voters aged 18-39 by 18 points; that's down to two.
- He won voters earning less than $50,000 by 22 points; it's down to three.
- He's now nine points in the hole with voters without a college degree, after winning them by four points.
- While he'd still win 59% of liberals, that's down from 75%—and 20% now say they'd vote for Romney.
Obama's approval rating has fallen 13 points this year to 42%, tying its lowest mark ever in the poll. The culprit, as you might suspect, is at least in part the Affordable Care Act rollout, which 63% think has been handled poorly. The public now opposes the law itself 57%-40%, its worst numbers yet, and 71% favor delaying the individual mandate.