It would be close, but Barack Obama would beat John McCain if the presidential election were held today, an AP-Ipsos poll shows. A McCain-Hillary Clinton contest would come out nearly even. The numbers highlight the deep divide between Obama and Clinton supporters, with roughly a third of each saying they'd sooner vote for McCain than the other Democrat.
Obama leads both McCain and Clinton among moderates, a group both parties will target. McCain is the undisputed GOP frontrunner, but only a minority of evangelicals and conservatives favor him. Obama outdoes Clinton among male voters, particularly those under 45: He holds a 9-point advantage over McCain in that group, but McCain bests Clinton in that same demographic by 7 points.