GOP Shouldn't Get Giddy About Senate Control Yet
Forecasters have them taking over after midterms, but two skeptics differ
By John Johnson, Newser Staff
Posted Aug 6, 2014 1:30 PM CDT
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. Will he soon be majority leader?   (AP Photo/Stephen Lance Dennee)

(Newser) – Republicans have reason to be happy heading into the midterm elections, with forecasts from respected outlets such as the Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight.com pointing toward a GOP takeover of the Senate. At the Washington Post, however, Dan Balz isn't quite so convinced. Republicans need to pick up six seats, and Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia look like gimmes. Beyond that, however, things get more difficult. Republicans "have plenty of options but their victories must come either by defeating Democratic incumbents in red states or picking off seats in blue or purple states that Obama and the Democrats have been winning in presidential elections," writes Balz.

Republicans boast that they can take the Senate without winning in any state that Mitt Romney lost, but to do so, they'd have to knock off incumbents in Arkansas, Louisiana, Alaska, and North Carolina. None are gimmes, especially the latter two. Democrats, meanwhile, say they've got better candidates overall and a stronger "ground game" to turn out voters. Balz sums up by saying Republicans are "in an enviable but not yet commanding position." They may yet take the Senate, but they'll have to "earn it state by state by state." At the Hill, James Carville adds that Democrats can take heart from one stat: The GOP's favorability rating is hovering around 35%, with Democrats at 49%. "In what other endeavor would you be selling something attached to a brand so unpopular and expect success?" he asks. Click for Carville's full post, or for Balz's full post.

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Showing 3 of 84 comments
Roger Wilko
Aug 17, 2014 10:48 PM CDT
The GOP will do well in the upcoming "off year" elections. What always seems to do them in is their policies. You can't be anti-worker, anti-union, anti-family, anti-immigrant, anti-women and win in the long run. Progressives always win because for each backward step we take in conservative thought, we take two forward in liberal thought. Without this march toward a better future, we'd still have slavery, no social safety nets for our elderly or education for our children. We may not always like it, and it may not always be the most efficient, but when the free market fails ( and it often does ), we have to look to lawmakers to right the ship. And once in a while, they actually get it right.
circlingthedrain
Aug 7, 2014 11:54 AM CDT
All primary elections decide is which is the least stinky turd.
Lake
Aug 7, 2014 9:19 AM CDT
A Republican president and Republican Congress in 2016, and the socialist programs that are outdated and proven not to work will be eliminated. No more payouts for social security or medicare, food stamps and unemployment gone , wasteful spending cut, this country will be on its way again. It will mean tightening the belt, but our great grandchildren will at least reap the benefit of our sacrifices. No one will if we don't and soon !