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Goldman Analysts Warn of Next Crisis

Commercial real estate outlook even worse than subprime situation

By Kevin Spak,  Newser Staff

Posted Mar 3, 2008 4:10 PM CST

(Newser) – Commercial real estate could be the next victim of the current economic downturn, and if it is, expect it to cause another full-fledged crisis, the Wall Street Journal reports. Commercial real estate values could fall as much as 26% over the next 2 years, Goldman Sachs analysts predict, leading to another round of huge write-offs and creating "a significantly longer tail than subprime."

The analysts expect the big banks to write down $7.2 billion in commercial loans this quarter. Even if it does outstrip the subprime crisis, the eventual damage won’t come in such quick, headline-grabbing bursts. Subprime loans had mostly been securitized, leading to sudden market wipeouts, while banks keep the lion’s share of their commercial loans.

The building on Broad Street in New York's Financial District that houses brokerage firm Goldman Sachs is shown in this June 12, 2007 file photo. (AP Photo/Richard Drew, file)
The building on Broad Street in New York's Financial District that houses brokerage firm Goldman Sachs is shown in this June 12, 2007 file photo. (AP Photo/Richard Drew, file)   (Associated Press)
The Citigroup Center, left, is reflected in a neighboring building on Monday, Nov. 5, 2007 in New York. (AP Photo/Mark Lennihan)
The Citigroup Center, left, is reflected in a neighboring building on Monday, Nov. 5, 2007 in New York. (AP Photo/Mark Lennihan)   (Associated Press)
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