Nate Silver Has Bad News for Hillary Clinton

Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight has gone over the latest polls, and he's not sure whether they are terrible news for Hillary Clinton or merely bad. One "scary result" for Clinton is a poll that shows Donald Trump with a 5-point lead in Ohio, he writes, though others show little change despite Clinton's recent setbacks. But what "the commentariat has been slow to recognize," he writes, is how much the race has already swung toward Trump in recent weeks, with Clinton's lead shrinking from around 8 points to 3. Silver now gives Trump a 37.3% chance of winning, based on polls. Those are the best odds he has given the Republican since July. In other coverage:

• Business Insider notes that while Silver's model still predicts that Clinton will win the popular vote, the electoral math has tightened, with swing states Florida, North Carolina, Iowa, and Ohio all now on course to vote for Trump.

• Politico reports that Trump is still avoiding mentions of Clinton's health, though he did come close at a raucous rally in Canton, Ohio, on Wednesday night, where he repeatedly strayed from his teleprompter script. "It is hot, and it is always hot when I perform, because the crowds are so big, these rooms were not designed for this kind of crowd," he said. "I don't know, folks, do you think Hillary could stand up here for an hour?"
• The AP reports that Clinton will return to the campaign trail Thursday with a campaign event in Greensboro, NC, and a speech to a Hispanic group. A letter from her doctor declaring her "healthy and fit to serve as president" was released Wednesday.
• Trump unveiled results of a physical in a Dr. Oz taping on Wednesday and his campaign offered new details on Melania Trump's immigration status. The Washington Post looks at why he can still be considered the "least transparent major presidential nominee in modern history."
• NBC News reports that Clinton ally David Brock has created a WikiLeaks-style site in an effort to dig up some dirt on Trump. His TrumpLeaks site says it's willing to pay for legally obtained audio or video of the candidate.
• Trump is scheduled to make a major economic policy speech in New York on Thursday, where he's expected to set out a new tax reform plan, the Guardian reports.

(More Donald Trump stories.)