Economy Grew at a Crawl in First Quarter

Forecast fastest expansion in years on consumer spending

(NEWSER) - Economists are growing more optimistic about this year’s climate, predicting it will expand at its fastest pace since 2003, the Wall Street Journal reports. The paper polled 51 economists. Among the highlights:

• Economists see only a 12% risk of returning to recession, compared to 22% in September.
• In the 4th quarter of 2011, economists expect GDP to be 3.5% higher than a year before—beating last month’s prediction of a 3.3% increase.

Consumer spending grew at fastest pace in 5 years

(NEWSER) - Spurred by consumer spending and a shrinking trade deficit, the economy grew at a 3.2% annual rate in the fourth quarter. That beats the previous quarter's 2.6% but falls short of analysts' expectations of 3.5%. Still, "a number above 3% should drive a stake through the heart of anyone who still thought that the economy was headed for a double-dip recession," said the chief strategist at Federated Investors. Fourth-quarter consumer spending grew at its fastest pace in almost 5 years, with an annual rate of 4.4%—nearly double the previous quarter’s figure, the New York Times reports. More»

Spending and home prices are up, but not enough to help jobs

(NEWSER) - The government’s optimistic reading of GDP growth in the 3rd quarter was distorted by a pair of rose-tinted glasses, it now says. The Commerce Department has revised its estimate down to 2.8% from 3.5% on evidence that stimulus programs like Cash for Clunkers and the homebuyers' tax credit did not spur as much spending as previously thought. Still, home spending was up 19.5%, and durable goods spending up 20.1%. More»

Savings rate jumps over job, portfolio fears

(NEWSER) - Even after the economy rebounds, the US will likely remain a nation of penny pinchers—and that has economists worried, the New York Times reports. Consumer spending accounts for 70% of the country’s GDP, but Americans, fretting over job security and losses in the housing and stock sectors, are squirreling away more of their after-tax income in unprecedented fashion. More»

Worse than anticipated

(AP) - The US economy contracted at a staggering 6.2% pace at the end of 2008, the worst showing in more than a quarter-century, as consumers and businesses ratcheted back spending, plunging the country deeper into recession. That's drastically worse than the 3.8% the government originally estimated, and the 5.4% economists predicted. Looking ahead, economists predict consumers and businesses will keep cutting back spending, making the first six months of this year especially rocky. More»