Indiana is an especially hard state to suss out ahead of next week’s primary, because its recent fortunes lie somewhere between those of flush Connecticut and struggling Ohio. Racial factors aren’t significant, so the Democratic race likely turns on economics, with prosperous areas favoring Barack Obama and the less affluent helping Hillary Clinton, Politico reports in its analysis of the state's inclinations.
Unlike some Midwest neighbors, Indiana isn't a natural fit for either candidate. The split between Indianapolis prosperity and Muncie depression makes the race tough to call. The suburbs may end up holding the swing votes, and their political preferences are shifting: Historically part of Obama’s base, the suburban class is precisely the constituency that’s been eroding of late.