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What's Up With the Prez Polls?

Expert explains why some surveys give Obama a double-digit lead

By Harry Kimball,  Newser Staff

Posted Jun 29, 2008 10:20 AM CDT
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(Newser) – Voter polls on John McCain and Barack Obama are all over the map: Gallup has them neck-and-neck, while LA Times/Bloomberg and Newsweek say Obama leads by up to 15 points. What gives? One expert says the latter polls relied too heavily on Democrats. "We know that the best predictor of how someone is going to vote is their party ID," Pew Research editor Richard Morin tells CQPolitics.

If the pro-Obama polls balance out Dems and Republicans, he says, Obama's lead shrinks to single digits or even disappears. But Morin stresses that the pollsters didn't do it on purpose. “Embedded in the operations of polling are subtle differences that result in skews—and they can be either Republican skews or Democratic skews.”

Chart shows poll results on voters' opinion about John McCain and Barack Obama.
Chart shows poll results on voters' opinion about John McCain and Barack Obama.   (AP Photo)
McCain and Obama, meet on Capitol Hill.
McCain and Obama, meet on Capitol Hill.   (AP Photo)
A chart shows poll results of how voters rate John McCain and Barack Obama on qualities.
A chart shows poll results of how voters rate John McCain and Barack Obama on qualities.   (AP Photo)
Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama.
Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama.   (AP Photo)
Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain.
Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain.   (AP Photo)
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The LA Times/Bloomberg Poll
Los Angeles Times

Voter swings reflect party mood: blogger
Newsweek

Gallup's daily tracking
Gallup

Shocker? Russians, in poll, prefer Obama
Associated Press

 
Barack Obama • John McCain • Newsweek • poll • Election 2008 • Gallup poll • Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll

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