Arizona May Not Roll for McCain

Sarah Palin's candidacy shook up the race, but polls show female support in line with past elections

(NEWSER) - Sarah Palin’s novel influence on the presidential campaign appears to have waned, and the “gender gap” among voters has reverted to that in past elections, the Chicago Tribune reports. That means women favor Democrat Barack Obama over Republican John McCain. Women will support Obama by a margin of between four and 11 percentage points on Election Day, predicts a scholar at the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University. More»

Northeast, Midwest would lose seats if today's census was used

(NEWSER) - The South is gaining population and power at the expense of the Northeast and Midwest, according to Census Bureau estimates released yesterday. If House seats were distributed based on the estimates, which are believed to be a strong predictor of the 2010 census results, Texas would be the big winner, gaining three seats, with Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Utah, and Washington each adding one. More»

Dramatic shift in electorate favors liberals: poll

(NEWSER) - Blue states are far bluer than red states are red, says a new Gallup poll. Party registrations favor Democrats—they lead by 10 or more percentage points in 29 states and the DC, compared to four states where Republicans dominate—suggesting that Dems can expand on ther gains they made in last year's elections, the Hill reports. More»

(NEWSER) - At 5 tonight, a wave of exit-polling results will be distributed to media insiders, who'll try manfully to resist sharing anything that might prejudice voters—even though it will kill them. At 6 pm, the results will start rolling in, and Politico gives you a play-by-play guide to what to look for as each state reports. Some highlights:

• Indiana: Polls close at 6 in the East, 7 in the West. An Obama win in the hotly contested state would give the McCain campaign pause.

Republican picking up little to no ground

(NEWSER) - John McCain isn’t moving up on Barack Obama in the polls—at least not fast enough to be significant, writes statistics guru Nate Silver at his blog FiveThirtyEight.com. The Republican appears to be about six or seven points back. While he’s picked up maybe a point in the last week, he has to gain six more in five days to close the gap—not an easy task. More»