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Running Mate 'Bounce' Doesn't Climb Very High

Poll surge noticeable but brief: Gallup

By Kevin Spak,  Newser Staff

Posted Aug 11, 2008 7:53 PM CDT

(Newser) – Much ink has been spilled over Barack Obama and John McCain’s upcoming VP selections, but a running mate is not a game-changing choice, the Chicago Tribune reports. History suggests the effect on opinion polls will be noticeable but not huge: Gallup shows recent candidates getting an average 5% bump after announcing their picks.

Bob Dole got the biggest lift when he selected Jack Kemp, but even that only served to take him from 30% to 39%. Most recently, John Kerry saw a mere 4% boost after selecting John Edwards, and that bump evaporated within 10 days. Even that mini-surge looked big compared to George W. Bush’s 3% Cheney bump. The picks also did little to dent opposition support, which generally holds steady through the announcements.

Republican Presidential candidate, Bob Dole & Vice Presidential Jack Kemp.
Republican Presidential candidate, Bob Dole & Vice Presidential Jack Kemp.   (Magnum Photos)
Bob Dole got one of the biggest VP bumps ever.
Bob Dole got one of the biggest VP bumps ever.   (Magnum Photos)
Al Gore saw a 5% bounce when he named his running mate.
Al Gore saw a 5% bounce when he named his running mate.   (KRT Photos)
John Kerry says the pledge of allegiance with his newly-picked running mate in this file photo.
John Kerry says the pledge of allegiance with his newly-picked running mate in this file photo.   (KRT Photos)
AKRON, OH -- Democratic Presidential hopeful John Kerry, left, and his newly selected running mate, John Edwards, greet a large crowd of supporters in Cleveland, Ohio, on Wednesday, July 7, 2004.
AKRON, OH -- Democratic Presidential hopeful John Kerry, left, and his newly selected running mate, John Edwards, greet a large crowd of supporters in Cleveland, Ohio, on Wednesday, July 7, 2004.   (KRT Photos)
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