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Obama Hopes to Find Southern Comfort in Va.

State demographics shifting blue, but Dems haven't won since '64

By Jason Farago,  Newser Staff

Posted Sep 18, 2008 9:07 AM CDT

(Newser) – Barack Obama is seeking to become the first Democrat to win Virginia since LBJ in 1964. He's got a good shot, writes the New York Times: demographic changes favor his party, and Virginia has now elected two Democratic governors and a senator. But John McCain has the support of several key constituencies, and the critical race is neck-and-neck.

Democrats do best in Virginia's north, near Washington, while Republicans prevail in the rural south. But on the coast lies the critical, hard-to-predict region of Hampton Roads; while more than 500,000 people there work for the McCain-friendly military, more than 20% of the population is African-American. One Obama field worker says that "there is serious momentum here, but whatever happens, it's going to be close."

In this Aug. 21, 2008 file photo, Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine looks on as Barack Obama speaks during a town hall meeting at John Tyler Community College in Chester, Va.
In this Aug. 21, 2008 file photo, Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine looks on as Barack Obama speaks during a town hall meeting at John Tyler Community College in Chester, Va.   (AP Photo/Steve Helber, File)
Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill. looks a peanut items with Dorothy Bass, Thursday, Aug. 21, 2008, at Virginia Favorites, Ltd., in Emporia, Va.
Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill. looks a peanut items with Dorothy Bass, Thursday, Aug. 21, 2008, at Virginia Favorites, Ltd., in Emporia, Va.   (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
Barack Obama listens to Virginia Democratic Senatorial candidate, former Gov. Mark Warner speaks during a town hall meeting in Martinsville, Va., Wednesday, Aug. 20, 2008.
Barack Obama listens to Virginia Democratic Senatorial candidate, former Gov. Mark Warner speaks during a town hall meeting in Martinsville, Va., Wednesday, Aug. 20, 2008.   (AP Photo/Steve Helber)
Republican presidential hopeful Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., answers questions at Virginia Military Institute in Lexington Va., Wednesday, April 11, 2007.
Republican presidential hopeful Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., answers questions at Virginia Military Institute in Lexington Va., Wednesday, April 11, 2007.   (AP Photo/Don Petersen)
In this Feb. 12, 2008 file photo, Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., center, flanked by Sen. John Warner, R-Va., left, and rep. Tom Davis, R-Va., greets supporters following primaries in Virginia, Maryland, and the District of Columbia.
In this Feb. 12, 2008 file photo, Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., center, flanked by Sen. John Warner, R-Va., left, and rep. Tom Davis, R-Va., greets supporters following...   (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite, File)
Democratic presidential candidate, Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., speaks during a rally in Las Vegas, Wednesday, Sept. 17, 2008.
Democratic presidential candidate, Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., speaks during a rally in Las Vegas, Wednesday, Sept. 17, 2008.   (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)
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On election nights, I can look at Virginia Beach’s returns, and if I see a big GOP margin, I know the Republicans have won the state. If I see a close margin late on election night, I know the Democrats have won. - UVa. politics professor Larry Sabato

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