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Rove: Obama Wins if Vote Were Today

Republican strategist calls some close states for the Democrat

By Katherine Thompson,  Newser Staff

Posted Oct 5, 2008 1:03 PM CDT

(Newser) – Karl Rove isn't seeing red when he looks at his crystal electoral map, reports Politico, and is seeing enough blue to propel Barack Obama into the White House if the vote were held today. The GOP strategist has moved Minnesota and New Hampshire into the Democratic column, but cautions that the race is still plenty prone to dramatic swings. Meanwhile, in the battleground state of Virginia, GOP leaders are squirming, Politico reports.

Polls put the race there within the margin of error, a shock to Republicans counting on the state's 44-year record of conservative voting. Obama's campaign has sunk its resources into Virginia, while John McCain has held just one event there. But Republicans take comfort in the rightward leanings of moderates in Virginia and other too-close-to-call states.

Bruce Springsteen performs at a free outdoor concert in support of Barack Obama in Philadelphia. Karl Rove's map has Pennsylvania going for the Democrat.
Bruce Springsteen performs at a free outdoor concert in support of Barack Obama in Philadelphia. Karl Rove's map has Pennsylvania going for the Democrat.   (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)
Karl Rove
Karl Rove   (Richard Avedon Foundation)
Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama waves before he speaks at North Carolina's annual Vance-Aycock Dinner in Asheville, N.C. Saturday, Oct. 4, 2008.
Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama waves before he speaks at North Carolina's annual Vance-Aycock Dinner in Asheville, N.C. Saturday, Oct. 4, 2008.   (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
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If the election were today, Obama would win every state John Kerry won in 2004, while adding New Mexico (5 EV), Iowa (7 EV), and Colorado (9 EV). Remember, though, that these state polls are a lagging indicator. - Karl Rove

Just remember, 17 days ago in the electoral college, McCain led 227 to 216. Fifteen days ago, on the eve of the bailout, he led 216-215.This race is susceptible to rapid changes and we're likely to see more. - Karl Rove

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