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Pollsters to Voters: Be Straight With Us

Gay-marriage ban fails in surveys, but are respondents lying?

By Drew Nelles, Newser Staff

Posted Oct 9, 2008 3:47 PM CDT

(Newser) – Polls indicate that a California ballot measure to ban gay marriage will fail by a substantial margin—but that might be because respondents are lying to pollsters to avoid seeming homophobic, the Sacramento Bee reports. A recent study sponsored by supporters of the measure hints that polls do understate support for same-sex marriage bans, although one expert questions the legitimacy of its findings.

Voters “don't want to be seen by pollsters as being intolerant—so they hide their views," a pro-ban campaigner says. This phenomenon is known as the “Bradley effect” and usually invoked to account for racial disparities between polls and election results. But the expert, an NYU professor, says that, if the effect does play a role in gay-marriage polls, "it's small and certainly not getting bigger over time."

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Pastor Jim Garlow from the evangelical Skyline Church, left, talks with openly gay church member Dean Hughes after Garlow's sermon against gay marriage on Sunday, Sept. 21, 2008 in San Diego. (AP Photo/Lenny Ignelzi)

Hundreds of pastors have called on their congregations to fast and pray for the passage of Proposition 8, which would define marriage as a union between a man and a woman. (AP Photo/Lenny Ignelzi)

Proposition 8 supporter Jeff Zaine, right, asks voter Dionisio Tonel, left, about his thoughts on gay marriage during a poll of voters in Elk Grove, Calif., on Saturday, Aug. 23, 2008. If passed Proposition... (AP Photo/Steve Yeater)

Wedding cake toppers of a groom and a groom are seen at the Renellie warehouse in Costa Mesa, Calif. on Friday, June 6, 2008. (AP Photo/Damian Dovarganes)

Skyline Church members Jeff Thomas, left, and Edy Johnson, center, hand out literature urging voters to pass Proposition 8 on Sunday, Sept 21, 2008 in San Diego. (AP Photo/Lenny Ignelzi)

Sal Baglieri, left, and partner of 32 years Pete Cirincione pose for a photo after receiving their marriage license on the first day of same-sex marriages in San Francisco, Tuesday, June 17, 2008. (AP Photo/Tony Avelar)

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Because the media portrays gay marriages as being politically correct, people don't want to be seen by pollsters as being intolerant – so they hide their views. - Frank Schubert, Yes on 8 campaign manager

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Pollsters to Voters: Be Straight With Us