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Iran Faces Its Nightmare: Falling Oil

Suddenly negotiating is starting to look pretty smart, says Friedman

By Jason Farago, Newser Staff

Posted Oct 29, 2008 9:24 AM CDT

(Newser) – Barack Obama's promise to negotiate with Iran once seemed like a dubious idea to Thomas Friedman—pre-conditions or not, the US had no leverage. But everything's changed now that the price of oil is at $57 and falling, writes the New York Times columnist. Once the mullahs went on a "domestic subsidy binge" to quell dissent, but now galloping inflation and high unemployment can't be swept under the Persian carpet.

Past UN sanctions haven't worked because the high price of oil has cushioned Iran. Now it's going to hurt—and there's every chance that a President Obama will get to negotiate on Iran's nuclear program on his own terms. "After all," writes Friedman, "it was the collapse of global oil prices in the early 1990s that brought down the Soviet Union. And Iran today is looking very Soviet to me."

[Images (4)]

[Quotes (2)]

Barack Obama speaks at a rally in Harrisonburg, Va., Tuesday, Oct. 28, 2008. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, during a religious ceremony marking the death of the Shiite Saint Jaafar Sadeq in Tehran on Saturday Oct, 25, 2008. (AP photo/Hasan Sarbakhshian)

Iranian women walk pass the Iranian Petroleum Ministry in Tehran, Tuesday Oct. 14, 2008. The falling price of petroleum imperils the Iranian regime, writes Thomas L. Friedman. (AP Photo/Hasan Sarbakhshian)

An oil refinery in Tehran, Iran. The falling price of petroleum imperils the Iranian regime, writes Thomas L. Friedman. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi, file)

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Iran today has 30% inflation, 11% unemployment and huge underemployment with thousands of young college grads, engineers and architects selling pizzas and driving taxis. Fasten your seat belts. - Thomas L. Friedman

Incidentally, this was exactly what happened to the shah of Iran: 1) Sudden surge in oil prices. 2) Delusions of grandeur. 3) Sudden contraction of oil prices.
4) Dramatic downfall.
5) You’re toast. - Thomas Friedman

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Iran Faces Its Nightmare: Falling Oil