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No, Matt Drudge, the McCain Gap Isn't Closing

FiveThirtyEight's Silver smacks down "tightening polls" narrative

By Gabriel Winant,  Newser User

Posted Oct 31, 2008 7:31 AM CDT

(Newser) – Calm down, writes Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com. There's no need to panic over a couple of polls, trumpeted by Drudge, showing the race tightening. “Man, I thought I trained you guys better than this,” he notes. One, the Mason-Dixon poll, shows Obama up by only 4 in Pennsylvania. The other, a Fox News poll, has him leading by just 3 nationwide. Neither is persuasive evidence of real movement, Silver says.

Sometimes, writes Silver, a poll just comes up with an aberrant result. It doesn’t mean the pollster is biased, or even wrong. It’s just part of the nature of random sampling, especially for pollsters who don’t weight their sample by party. Nothing Silver’s seen adds up to evidence of a tightening race. He reiterates: for a game-changer, John McCain would need to be polling "within 2 points in 2 or more non-partisan polls in at least 2 out of the 3 following states: Colorado, Virginia, Pennsylvania."

An electoral college map, distorted to represent the number of electoral votes per state, showing a potential landslide for Barack Obama.
An electoral college map, distorted to represent the number of electoral votes per state, showing a potential landslide for Barack Obama.   (©sioenroux)
Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz. shakes hands with supporters after speaking at Mentor High School in Mentor, Ohio Thursday, Oct. 30, 2008.
Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz. shakes hands with supporters after speaking at Mentor High School in Mentor, Ohio Thursday, Oct. 30, 2008.   (AP Photo/David Guttenfelder)
Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., reacts to the crowd at a rally at Mentor High School in Mentor, Ohio, Thursday, Oct. 30, 2008.
Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., reacts to the crowd at a rally at Mentor High School in Mentor, Ohio, Thursday, Oct. 30, 2008.   (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)
Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., steps off the plane at the airport in Columbia, Mo., Thursday, Oct. 30, 2008.
Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., steps off the plane at the airport in Columbia, Mo., Thursday, Oct. 30, 2008.   (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., uses finger quotes while speaking about Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., during a rally at Mentor High School in Mentor, Ohio Thursday, Oct. 30, 2008.
Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., uses finger quotes while speaking about Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., during a rally at Mentor High School in...   (AP Photo/David Richard)
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It might also help to come at this from the other direction. Here is one poll out of many, out of one "must-win" state out of many , that shows that John McCain is sorta kinda close? This is the best news he can muster? - Nate Silver

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COMMENTS
Showing 2 of 2 comments
Shannonals
Nov 1, 2008 3:16 AM CDT
Funny, Sean Hannity said Sen. McCain was in the forefront ny one point, thanks to word from his Pals at the Drudge
Guest
Oct 30, 2008 10:51 PM CDT
Yet another ad for Obama. Give up McCain supports and stay home --- he can't win. Have to wait and see, but I encourage everyone to get out there and vote!

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