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4 Financial Doomsday Scenarios

By Harry Kimball,  Newser Staff

Posted Dec 17, 2008 11:20 AM CST

(Newser) – James Rickards is far more pessimistic about the economic crisis and its global implications than most of his analyst colleagues, Politico reports. But he’s also well respected by US intelligence and defense services. Here are four of his nightmare scenarios.

  • Terrorism: Al-Qaeda has long sought to disrupt the US economy; the current crisis would give any attack a "force multiplier effect"

  • China: The country finances more than $500 billion in US debt, but depends on a halfway decent dollar to fuel its export economy. As the US continues to devalue its currency with bailouts, China's influence grows.
  • A real crash: Rampant deflation, 15% unemployment, and a 35% loss of GDP don't seem to be in the cards, but Rickards is paid to think about the "existential threat," and loss of international influence, they would cause
  • A new global currency: The world depends on the dollar now because there's nothing else; if the world comes up with an alternative and abandons the dollar as its lingua franca, a recession becomes a depression

A specialist works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
A specialist works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.   (AP Photo)
An alleged counterfeiter, arrested by Colombia's secret police, covers his face as he stands next to counterfeit cash in Cali, Colombia.
An alleged counterfeiter, arrested by Colombia's secret police, covers his face as he stands next to counterfeit cash in Cali, Colombia.   (AP Photo)
Chinese police officers take part in a security drill in Chengdu.
Chinese police officers take part in a security drill in Chengdu.   (AP Photo)
Overstocked Toyota Corollas and trucks sit on a lot.
Overstocked Toyota Corollas and trucks sit on a lot.   (AP Photo)
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COMMENTS
Showing 1 of 1 comment
Zebraone
Dec 17, 2008 3:44 AM CST
Not really hard to imagine any of those scenarios~~~~And there are others even worse that are not stated~~~The hungry of the world have not coaelesed yet~~~~ Biological activity has increased faster than remedies to cure them~~~ the list IS quite understated!!!

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