Alarmist Report on Black Murders Is Bad Math

Statistics shows the furor over murder spike may be misplaced

By Katherine Thompson, Newser Staff

Posted Dec 31, 2008 2:00 PM CST

(Newser) – The widespread publication of an ominous-looking rise in black teen homicide rates has created a disturbing buzz, but the apparent spike in murderous youths may not be nearly as drastic as it sounds. The Freakonomics Blog explains why: Compared with the jump in the 1990s, this recent rise is nearly insignificant. Also, it appears only in one age group,14- to 17-year-olds—there's no similar trend in 18- to 24-year-olds.

But most critically, the new homicide report doesn't take into account the overall swell in the number of black teenagers. Nearly half of the 39% increase reported since 2000 reflects the 15% increase in the number of people in that demo.

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A murder indictment has been issued Tuesday, Dec. 30, 2008, against 27-year-old William Balfour, the man accused of killing the mother, brother and nephew of Oscar-winning actress Jennifer Hudson. (AP Photo/Cook County Sheriff's Department, file)

On "The Wire," Tristan Wilds played Michael Lee, who becomes a hit man for a drug kingpin. (loveydoveypeace)

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Video contains spoiler from "The Wire's" fifth season. A young boy kills a man. (GooneDeloox)

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Alarmist Report on Black Murders Is Bad Math