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THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 26, 2009
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 ANALYSIS 
4

Nate Silver: Win the Cities, Win America

Fast-growing urban demographic handed Obama election victory

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(Newser) – Barack Obama's strength in cities won him the election, meaning he "might be America's first urban" president, statistics whiz Nate Silver writes in Esquire. Obama's "pragmatic, superior, hip, stubborn, multicultural" ways make him unmistakably urban, Silver writes, and America's changing demographics mean that urban voters matter now more than ever.

The percentage of voters identified as rural has shriveled since 1992 while the urban percentage has risen steadily, Silver notes. Suburban voters now make up almost half the electorate, and they are starting to look—and vote—more like their urban counterparts. "Among the many mistakes the McCain campaign made was targeting the rural vote rather than the suburban one," Silver writes.

Barack Obama addresses a rally in the parking lot of Soldier Field before a presidential forum hosted by the AFL-CIO at the stadium in Chicago, Tuesday, Aug. 7, 2007.
Barack Obama addresses a rally in the parking lot of Soldier Field before a presidential forum hosted by the AFL-CIO at the stadium in Chicago, Tuesday, Aug. 7, 2007.   (AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)
Barack Obama takes a walking tour of downtown Vinton, Iowa, Tuesday, Oct. 16, 2007.
Barack Obama takes a walking tour of downtown Vinton, Iowa, Tuesday, Oct. 16, 2007.   (AP Photo/David Lienemann)
The image of Barack Obama is shown on a poster for sale Wednesday, Aug. 27, 2008, in downtown Denver.
The image of Barack Obama is shown on a poster for sale Wednesday, Aug. 27, 2008, in downtown Denver.   (AP Photo/Ted S. Warren)
John McCain and Sarah Palin's focus on small towns was no way to win an election in today's America, Nate Silver writes.
John McCain and Sarah Palin's focus on small towns was no way to win an election in today's America, Nate Silver writes.   (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)
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Nate Silver explains the mission of his website, www.fivethirtyeight.com, at the DNC in Denver in August 2008.   (craignewmanCST)

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If you are going to pit big cities against small towns, it is probably a mistake to end up on the rural side of the ledger. - Nate Silver

Barack Obama was elected partly in reaction to the failures of the previous one, a president who was dogmatic, insecure, white-bread, and—at least ostensibly— rural. - Nate Silver

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christine_m
Jan 19, 09 8:59 PM CST
Without researching it, I believe that there is a large number of rural poor on welfare, and much of it is in the red states... so how does that fit into your theory? Also, huge difference winning a state with the population of a million or two (or less, as the case of Alaska), and winning populous states, therefore your whole state count is a bunch of bull shit.. Seriously, there is statistics and there are lying statistics... which any first year stat student could tell you.
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NutsInNY
Jan 15, 09 10:15 PM CST
Yeah but... you're forgetting that goofy little Electoral College tradition. (The right guy won despite that BS.) Reply
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Mr.C
Jan 15, 09 10:17 PM CST
i thought winning cities just translated to winning the minorities Reply
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Caps
Jan 16, 09 10:59 AM CST
Oh Corona-Queenie my dear, you are are so smart. It's sure is ashame it does not show. Reply
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