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Prof Does Math, Finds Banking System 'Insolvent'

By Harry Kimball,  Newser Staff

Posted Jan 21, 2009 1:37 PM CST

(Newser) – A New York University professor who predicted the current economic crisis warns that losses at US banks could climb to $3.6 trillion, leaving the whole system essentially bankrupt, Bloomberg reports. Economist Nouriel Roubini argues that since the system has a base capitalization of just $1.4 trillion, if losses get that high the “US banking system is effectively insolvent.” As it stands, financial institutions worldwide have lost or written down more than $1 trillion.

Roubini also sees a sustained contraction of commodity prices, including those for oil, over the next year. Oil at $30 to $40 a barrel will be “beneficial for oil importers,” he tells Bloomberg, “but from the point of view of oil exporters, this will be very negative.” As for the banks,“The problems of Citi, Bank of America, and others suggest the system is bankrupt. In Europe, it’s the same thing.”

Investor points to the stock price of HSBC.
Investor points to the stock price of HSBC.   (AP Photo)
An employee of the Korea Stock Exchange walks by an electronic stock price graph in Seoul.
An employee of the Korea Stock Exchange walks by an electronic stock price graph in Seoul.   (AP Photo)
New York University economist Nouriel Roubini.
New York University economist Nouriel Roubini.   (AP Photo)
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Credit losses could peak at a level of $3.6 trillion for U.S. institutions, half of them by banks and broker dealers. If that’s true, it means the U.S. banking system is effectively insolvent because it starts with a capital of $1.4 trillion. - Nouriel Roubini

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COMMENTS
Showing 1 of 1 comment
Newser001
Jan 21, 2009 7:15 PM CST
Nobody... This is why I've been so down, King... The global economy has over extended itself. Devaluation facilitates evaporation of securities valuation's. I believe, it was only a matter of time, and believe we're only seeing the tip of this ice berg - We have a very long way to go before we actually hit bottom... Analogous to a stitch of thread being pulled undone. The sub-prime industry pushed us over the top... Thrusting the final blow... But it is painfully obvious, governments were not doing their jobs regulating securities, banking, and loan industries...

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