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Nate Silver Turns Crystal Ball on Oscars

After number-crunching, Slumdog is tops

By Matt Cantor,  Newser Staff

Posted Feb 16, 2009 2:40 PM CST

(Newser) – FiveThirtyEight.com stats-cruncher extraordinaire Nate Silver shifts his sights from politics to the Oscars in New York magazine. He compiled data from 30 years of Academy Awards to discover the best predictors of success, and found that other awards (SAGs, Golden Globes) carry the most weight. Genre is also key; release date and MPAA rating don’t matter. His predictions:

  • Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger has 85.8% chance of success. He has swept every other award, and his untimely death clinches it.
  • Supporting Actress: Taraji P. Henson, 51%. Kate Winslet’s omission from the category helps.
  • Lead Actor: Mickey Rourke, 71.1%. He would have been neck-and-neck with Penn, whose 2004 win gives Oscar-less Rourke the edge.
  • Lead Actress: Kate Winslet, 67.6%. She’s done very well in awards thus far—and she's due at 6 nods, zero wins.
  • Best Director: Danny Boyle, 99.7%. The man behind Slumdog has taken all the major prizes.
  • Best Picture: Slumdog Millionaire, 99%. It’s won all the key awards: Directors Guild, Golden Globe, and Bafta.

Fellow cast member Gary Oldman accepts the award for outstanding performance by a male actor in a supporting role for Heath Ledger in 'The Dark Knight' at the 15th Annual SAG awards.
Fellow cast member Gary Oldman accepts the award for outstanding performance by a male actor in a supporting role for Heath Ledger in 'The Dark Knight' at the 15th Annual SAG awards.   (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)
Taraji P. Henson poses with her award for outstanding supporting actress in a motion picture for her work in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button at the 40th NAACP Image Awards, Feb. 12.
Taraji P. Henson poses with her award for outstanding supporting actress in a motion picture for her work in "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" at the 40th NAACP Image Awards, Feb. 12.   (AP Photo/Dan Steinberg)
British actress Kate Winslet arrives for the screening of The Reader at the Berlinale  in Berlin, Germany, Friday, Feb. 6, 2009. Silver predicts she'll win Best Actress.
British actress Kate Winslet arrives for the screening of "The Reader" at the Berlinale in Berlin, Germany, Friday, Feb. 6, 2009. Silver predicts she'll win Best Actress.   (AP Photo/Eckehard Schulz)
In this image released by Fox Searchlight pictures, Dev Patel, left, and Anil Kapoor are shown in a scene from Slumdog Millionaire.
In this image released by Fox Searchlight pictures, Dev Patel, left, and Anil Kapoor are shown in a scene from "Slumdog Millionaire."   (AP Photo/Ishika Mohan)
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The trailer for 'Slumdog Millionaire.'   (FoxSearchlight)
The trailer for 'The Wrestler,' starring Mickey Rourke and Marisa Tomei.   (FoxSearchlight)

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