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Analysts: We Haven't Hit Bottom Yet

Market isn't following pre-recovery trends, say experts

By Matt Cantor,  Newser Staff

Posted Feb 21, 2009 10:28 AM CST

(Newser) – With its 6% dive this week, the Dow has now taken back all of its gains since the end of the last bear market in 2002. So we're ready to climb again, right? Not quite. Analysts tell the Washington Post that markets aren’t behaving as they typically do when they hit bottom. It's actually a little too calm, and bottoms tend to be "violent affairs," said one. "You sell hard, you rally hard, you go down hard and then you're off to the races. That's not what were seeing right now.”

“Until this week, the market was really drifting sideways,” he added. Analysts believe that before we see a recovery, we’ll see more fear, with many investors leaving the options market completely—which hasn’t happened yet. “There are a lot of nervous folks out there, waiting to see how low this market can go,” said another expert. “When people aren't convinced one way or the other, markets just drift down."

Dilip Patel, left, and Glenn Carell, both of Bear Wagner Specialists, work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange yesterday in New York.
Dilip Patel, left, and Glenn Carell, both of Bear Wagner Specialists, work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange yesterday in New York.   (AP Photo/Henny Ray Abrams)
Louis Spina of Barclays Capital works at his post on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange yesterday in New York.
Louis Spina of Barclays Capital works at his post on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange yesterday in New York.   (AP Photo/Henny Ray Abrams)
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We have not reached high enough levels of fear in the options market to suggest that this test of the lows is going to be successful. - Mark Arbeter, chief technical strategist, Standard & Poor's Equity Research

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COMMENTS
Showing 2 of 2 comments
Forderon
Feb 21, 2009 7:28 PM CST
Thank you Doc for calling it what it is: a depression. Everyone is afraid to use the word, but we are definitely in a depression. Double-digit unemployment, 10 trillion deficit, no green energy infrastructure whatsoever, financial markets in the tank, auto industry failing,....sounds like a DEPRESSION to me. Let's come to terms with it and stop pretending this is going to end by 2011.
Doctor-Zaius
Feb 20, 2009 10:56 PM CST
Thanks for the depression Bush and Republicans. Enjoy the wilderness for the next 40 years.

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