If Barack Obama is lucky, and the predictions of most economists indicate he will be, the US economy will emerge from recession long before the populace expects it to, Nate Silver writes on FiveThirtyEight. And “it will be quite some time yet before the public pins most of the blame for the economy on Obama,” Silver writes.
Based on polling numbers, just 50% of people will hold Obama at fault in 18 months, a time when 100% of economists are sure the American economy will no longer be in recession. But the pessimistic public is also slow to recognize the end of a recession, even if it happens more quickly than they thought. “Until that recovery occurs,” Silver writes, “Obama’s approval ratings are likely to get worse before they get better.”