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Woes Won't Sour Obama Numbers ... Yet

By Harry Kimball,  Newser Staff

Posted Mar 5, 2009 3:05 PM CST

(Newser) – If Barack Obama is lucky, and the predictions of most economists indicate he will be, the US economy will emerge from recession long before the populace expects it to, Nate Silver writes on FiveThirtyEight. And “it will be quite some time yet before the public pins most of the blame for the economy on Obama,” Silver writes.

Based on polling numbers, just 50% of people will hold Obama at fault in 18 months, a time when 100% of economists are sure the American economy will no longer be in recession. But the pessimistic public is also slow to recognize the end of a recession, even if it happens more quickly than they thought. “Until that recovery occurs,” Silver writes, “Obama’s approval ratings are likely to get worse before they get better.”

President Barack Obama addresses employees and speaks about the economy.
President Barack Obama addresses employees and speaks about the economy.   (AP Photo)
President Barack Obama.
President Barack Obama.   (AP Photo)
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On balance, the public seems prepared to be pretty darned patient with Obama. The question is whether the public will in fact be as judicious as it expects itself to be after some number of additional months of dire economic headlines. -

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COMMENTS
Showing 3 of 7 comments
Guest
Mar 6, 2009 6:15 AM CST
In 18 months, if it doesn't work and the people turn against Obama, the only thing anyone else is proposing is a return to Bush. Oh boy, I'm excited...NOT!
Rob
Mar 6, 2009 2:57 AM CST
This is not a dichotomy. Bush was a disaster, and Obama is a disaster in the making. Just because Bush was a terrible president does not mean that Obama is going to be a good one. The idiotic bail-out is already evidence of it.
Guest
Mar 5, 2009 10:10 PM CST
OBB, you want to bet? Anyone who voted for Bush twice, should be ashamed to admit it.

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