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Beware the 'Experts'

Headstrong 'hedgehogs' get the most airtime, but little right

By Kevin Spak,  Newser Staff

Posted Mar 26, 2009 6:57 AM CDT

(Newser) – Why did financial experts so spectacularly fail to warn us about the economic crisis? Mostly because “so-called experts turn out to be, in many situations, a stunningly poor source of expertise,” writes Nicholas Kristof of the New York Times. Experts of all stripes are enormously influential, but their prognostications are just a hair better than random guesses, found one study that tracked 82,000 predictions by 284 of them.

It barely mattered if the experts had doctorates, or what field they came from, or how much experience they had. All that mattered was fame: the more famous a pundit, the less reliable. That’s because pundits earn air-time—and hence fame—by providing strong opinions and ideologies. Far more accurate were those who took nuanced, complex views. “What matters,” concludes Kristof, “isn’t so much knowledge or experience as good judgment.”

Jim Cramer, host of the Mad Money show on CNBC, makes an appearance on Comedy Central's The Daily Show with Jon Stewart Thursday, March 12, 2009 in New York.
Jim Cramer, host of the "Mad Money" show on CNBC, makes an appearance on Comedy Central's "The Daily Show with Jon Stewart" Thursday, March 12, 2009 in New York.   (AP Photo/Jason DeCrow)
The photo released by Fox shows new Fox Business Network anchor Liz Claman.
The photo released by Fox shows new Fox Business Network anchor Liz Claman.   (AP Photo/Fox Business)
Jim Cramer, host of CNBC's Mad Money, attends the opening bell of the Nasdaq stock market on Wednesday, Jan. 16, 2008, in New York.
Jim Cramer, host of CNBC's Mad Money, attends the opening bell of the Nasdaq stock market on Wednesday, Jan. 16, 2008, in New York.   (AP Photo/Mark Lennihan)
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Talent bookers for television shows and reporters tended to call up experts who provided strong, coherent points of view, who saw things in blacks and whites. People who shouted—like, yes, Jim Cramer!
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The marketplace of ideas for now doesn’t clear out bad pundits and bad ideas partly because there’s no accountability. We trumpet our successes and ignore failures. - Nicholas Krisof

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COMMENTS
Showing 1 of 1 comment
Snowleopard
Mar 26, 2009 9:17 AM CDT
but do they have big red buttons that make fun noises?

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