The tentative rally on Wall Street is reason enough for one economist to feel hopeful: "I’m ready to take another shot at calling the bottom," writes Michael Mandel in BusinessWeek. Since (apparently) bottoming out March 9, stocks have risen 20%, and the reasons behind the climb are genuine. Better policy, signs of economic revival, and historical data all point toward a possible sustained boost.
The $2 trillion the Fed and the Treasury are pumping into the markets are "a lot even in an economy as big as America's," Mandel observes. Durable goods orders are up, and the trade deficit is narrowing. "That, in turn, means America's financial markets become less vulnerable to turmoil in other parts of the world," but the potential fly in the ointment is a biggie, Mandel warns: "stubbornly high unemployment."